The LTD Mortality Report (Q3 2026)
Nobody publishes a reliable failure rate for lifetime software deals, because no marketplace releases how many deals it has ever sold. This report measures the part that can be measured: of 89 lifetime-deal tools verified by the DealKeep community as failed, 81% shut down outright, 12% had lifetime access revoked or downgraded by a company that is still trading, and 2% ended gracefully with the code open-sourced. Data snapshot 2026-07-01; the full per-tool list lives in the Lifetime Deal Graveyard.
Key findings
- 89 verified lifetime-deal failures on record — every entry buyer-contributed and moderator-approved.
- 81% of failures are outright shutdowns (72 of 89) — servers off, license worthless.
- 1 in 8 failures happens while the company is still alive: 11 tools (12%) had lifetime access revoked or quietly downgraded by an operating company — the failure mode no refund window covers.
- Only 2% of failures end gracefully with the code open-sourced so buyers can self-host.
How lifetime deals fail
Failure is not one event. These are the modes recorded in the database, in the order a buyer is likely to meet them.
| Failure mode | Count | Share | What it means for a buyer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shut down | 72 | 81% | Product gone, servers off, license worthless. Export windows close with the product. |
| Revoked or diminished lifetime tier | 11 | 12% | Company still trading; the lifetime promise is withdrawn or hollowed out, usually toward a subscription. No refund window reaches this far. |
| Open-sourced on exit | 2 | 2% | The graceful ending: code released so buyers can self-host what they paid for. The rarest outcome. |
Verified failures by year
43 of the 89 entries carry a community-reported failure year; the remaining 46 were verified without a confirmed date. Later years partly reflect community growth — treat the trend as directional.
| Year | Verified failures |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 |
| 2019 | 2 |
| 2020 | 1 |
| 2022 | 6 |
| 2023 | 6 |
| 2024 | 25 |
| 2025 | 2 |
2024 is the deadliest year on record in the database: 25 of 43 dated failures (58%).
Where the failed deals were sold
| Marketplace | Verified failures |
|---|---|
| AppSumo | 76 |
| SaaS Mantra | 4 |
| PitchGround | 3 |
| Private deal | 3 |
| Other | 2 |
| StackSocial | 1 |
Marketplace counts reflect where the contributing community buys — AppSumo is by far the largest LTD marketplace, so it dominates any failure list. A high count is NOT evidence a marketplace is riskier. For refund windows and buyer terms, see the marketplace comparison.
Methodology & limitations
Source: the DealKeep community failure database behind the Lifetime Deal Graveyard — buyer-contributed, moderator-reviewed, published only when community-verified. Statuses are buyer-reported observations, not legal determinations. The data records when failures were reported, not when deals launched, so a true "dies within N years of purchase" rate cannot be computed and is not published. Snapshot generated 2026-07-01; updated quarterly.
Cite this report
These numbers are free to cite — a link back is all we ask: DealKeep LTD Mortality Report, Q3 2026. DealKeep community failure database, snapshot 2026-07-01. https://www.dealkeep.io/ltd-mortality-report
DealKeep's tracker and Founder Track watch the tools you own against this database and warn you before one goes dark.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of lifetime deals fail?
No one can honestly publish that number, and we don't: a true failure rate needs the total number of lifetime deals ever sold as its denominator, and no marketplace releases that. What can be measured is how failures happen once they occur. Across 89 community-verified lifetime-deal failures, 81% (72 of 89) were outright shutdowns, 12% were lifetime deals revoked or downgraded by companies still in business, and 2% ended gracefully with the code open-sourced. Treat any single-figure "X% of LTDs fail" claim you see elsewhere as an estimate, not a measurement.
What happens when a lifetime deal company shuts down?
In most cases, access simply stops - 81% of the failures in this database are full shutdowns, where servers go off and the license becomes worthless. Three consequences follow. First, there is usually no refund: shutdowns land years after the marketplace refund window closed (60 days on AppSumo), so the money is gone. Second, notice is short or absent, and data export closes with the product - buyers who exported early kept their work, buyers who waited did not. Third, a graceful exit is rare: only 2 of 89 tools open-sourced their code so buyers could self-host. A separate failure mode is easy to miss: in 11 cases (12%) the company kept trading and revoked or diminished the lifetime tier instead, usually moving buyers onto a subscription.
Is there a lifetime-deal mortality rate?
Not a real one, for the denominator reason above. "89 verified failures" is a count of a curated record, not a rate - it says nothing about how many deals were sold in the same period. Anyone quoting a percentage of all lifetime deals is extrapolating from startup-failure statistics or a personal purchase history. What this report offers instead is the shape of failure: 81% shutdowns, 12% revoked-while-alive, 2% open-sourced.
Why are most of the failures AppSumo deals?
Because AppSumo is by far the largest lifetime-deal marketplace and where the contributing community buys most, so it dominates any failure list by volume. The counts say nothing about relative risk per marketplace - a fair comparison would require the full catalog history of every store.
Can I cite or republish these numbers?
Yes - please do. Cite it as "DealKeep LTD Mortality Report, Q3 2026. DealKeep community failure database, snapshot 2026-07-01." with a link to https://www.dealkeep.io/ltd-mortality-report. If you need a cut of the data we don't show here (a specific year, status, or marketplace), email support@dealkeep.io and we'll pull it.
How often is this report updated?
Quarterly. The underlying database is community-maintained and grows continuously; this page recomputes from a curated snapshot each quarter (current snapshot: 2026-07-01). The live, filterable list of every tracked tool is on the Lifetime Deal Graveyard page.